Forex Trading Newsletter -Alpesh Patel Investbetter  Pro  Opportunities- Trading GBP-USD, EURS-USD,FTSE100 and Gold

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Here are 2 days sample of the forex trading newsletters in May and made some profits in 1 day already.



Forex Trading Newsletter 1

Pound approaches 1.70 as Services' sector is blooming and Euro joins the rally, will Fed's Yellen try to kill it?

 

Alpesh Patel's Newsletter Pro - Forex Opportunities- Forex Trading Newsletter 7th May 2014

MORNING BRIEF

 

After a slow start for the trading week on Monday currency markets were back in business yesterday and volatility skyrocketed assisted by the scheduled economic data releases.

The Pound was the best performer of the day as the currency was on cue with our analysis yesterday but greatly surpassed our expectations. The significantly better than expected Services' PMI report that printed at 58.7 versus the 57.8 estimate drove the Pound a few pips off the 1.7000 barrier as investors aggressively added to their existing long positions.

This move is evidence of the progress the UK economy has done over the recent months and the Pound is gaining on the speculation that the Bank of England will be the first central bank to raise interest rates in the medium term. At the same time, Dollar's weakness is doing wonders to assist the Pound and the Euro as well to reach for higher levels.

However, we'd like to warn our audience that it will not take much for a profit-taking attempt to spark as the Pound seems bound to clear the 1.7000 barrier very soon. Long positions remain at extreme levels and at some point investors will want to cash out some of their gains so caution should be employed.

The Euro traded in a similar mood with the Pound as it enjoyed good Services' PMI figures and at the same time we saw a surprise to the upside on the Euro-zone's Retail Sales report. The report showed a 0.3% advance in consumer spending while estimations made word for a 0.2% decline. The combined effect of the better than expected news and Dollar's inability to capitalize on the recent improvements in its domestic economy drove the Euro towards 1.3950.

The only risk that the Euro is facing right now is ECB President Draghi's speech tomorrow where he could be inclined to talk down the currency to allow for a cheaper Euro that would help the region's exports. There's a possibility for the policymaker to do just that if he sees that the exceptionally high rate is becoming a drag to the region's further growth but we'll discuss this in more detail tomorrow.

At the same time, Janet Yellen's speech to the Joint Economic Committee is a possible risk for the Pound and the Euro but we believe that the Fed boss would be content with the current situation in the country's finances. There's growth in all sectors, unemployment is falling steadily and Treasury yields remain at low levels, a combination that allows for further improvements in the domestic economy. Actually, a low currency rate is rarely an issue for a central banker so we don't expect Yellen to change her rhetoric and offer something new today.

Economic Calendar - Forex Trading Newsletter

Time Currency Event Importance Forecast Previous

14.00 USD Fed's Yellen testifies to Joint Economic Committee High

Times are in GMT


 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & LEVELS

EUR/USD


The Euro was on the move yesterday climbing higher on the back of the positive economic figures that were released. The currency broke above the 1.3888 resistance and quickly hit our first target at the 1.3935 mark where we have liquidated 50% of the trade. As soon as the trade hit our target #1 we've also moved our stops at the breakeven price and we now have to wait and see whether the currency has more gas in the tank to look higher. Our second target remains at the 1.4010 area and our stops at 1.3895.


GBP/USD

The Pound exploded higher yesterday surprising us with its momentum. Our long trade was fortunate enough to trigger when the currency hit 1.6885 just before the climb started and obviously both our targets were hit soon after that. The Pound however went on and almost hit 1.7000 which is a significant barrier that might prove very hard to overcome at least on the first approach.

We believe that the currency is very much overbought at this point and with long positions at extreme levels we see increased risk of a retracement lower. So we'd like to stand aside for now, see whether the Pound makes another run towards 1.7000 and possibly move on a short trade if it fails to do so.


FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 showed some amazing resilience yesterday holding on near the 6,800 points level when its European and US peers were showing large losses. The encouraging Services' report allowed the London benchmark to remain relatively stable but we believe that the reversal might not be that far. We'd like to update our short suggestion as we're now intending to enter at the 6,780 points level, targeting the 6,755 and 6,705 price tags with a stop at the 6,840 area.

However, please be mindful of the FTSE's opening as there's a possibility that the index might pop below the 6,785 support for a moment before pulling up higher afterwards. Please don't rush into a trade even if the entry point is reached within the first hour of trading or so, take note to verify the break below the aforementioned support before committing into the trade.


Gold


Gold spent the day trading in a narrow range and is now poised for a breakout. We favor a long entry and as such we'd like to update our suggestion made yesterday: we'd like to enter long at the $1,316 level, target the $1,322 and $1,333 price tags and place a stop at the $1,302 area.

At the same time however there's a possibility that Gold will retrace even lower so we'd like to be prepared for such a scenario as well: we'd like to enter short at the $1,303 area, target the $1,299 and $1,289 marks and place a stop at the $1,316 area.

The above charts in this forex trading newsletter have been created using FXCM's Trading Station platform.  Indicators' settings: EMA 55 (red line), EMA 200 (green line), MACD (12,26,9)

Tactics overview in this forex trading newsletter

Upon suggesting an entry, two levels are set as targets and a single stop is issued. Upon reaching target #1 we suggest that you liquidate 50% of your entered trade size and move your stops from the initially issued level at the breakeven level.

The breakeven level mentioned in this forex trading newsletter is the trade's opening price level where no losses can occur. After this step the trade is left to hit either the stop placed at the breakeven price or target #2 for the remaining 50% trade size. Any modifications needed to these tactics are specifically mentioned in the analysis accompanying each instrument in the fore trading newsletter.


And Here's the day before Forex Trading Newsletter Analysis and calls.

Alpesh Patel's Newsletter Pro - Forex Opportunities- Forex Trading Newsletter 6th May 2014


Major currency pairs consolidated ahead of today's Services' reports, should we expect a breakout?

 

 

MORNING BRIEF

 

With the Japanese and UK markets closed yesterday due to different holidays the price action in both the Euro and the Pound has been slow. The currency pairs spent their day consolidating around their previous levels but with a number of important events ahead of us this could change quickly.

Yesterday the release of the Non-Manufacturing ISM for the US economy showed an improvement to the Services' sector in the country but the Dollar didn't react to this in any substantial way. As long as Treasury yields remain at very low levels and with no more important events from the US this week we expect Dollar's volatility and price action to remain smooth. Any moves in the currency pairs we're monitoring should be attributed to the rest of the currencies.

The Euro spent its day trading in a narrow range between 1.3865 and 1.3888 and we should take note of the currency's resilience at this point. Yesterday the European Commission cut the growth forecast for the region but the Euro remained unchanged even though at the same time tensions in the Russia/Ukraine conflict threaten the stability of the region.

The Single currency shows remarkable strength once again as it holds near its previous highs untouched by the various risk factors. Today, there is a number of PMI Services releases that are expected to print steady for the Euro and this could spur a rally higher for the currency given its current robust performance. The only significant factor that has the potential to bring Euro lower is any potentially bearish comments from ECB's Draghi on his scheduled press conference later in the week.

The Pound like the Euro didn't offer much of a thrill yesterday as the UK markets were closed for May day and consolidated in a range between 1.6850 and 1.6880 ahead of today's Services' report. With the release expected to show a steady outlook for the UK Services' sector the Pound has the potential to break above its recent highs and make a run for the 1.6950 and 1.7000 marks. Given the fact that long positions are still at high levels we'd expect a steady climb rather than an explosion higher should this scenario materialize.

The FTSE 100 was closed yesterday and most brokers didn't offer any price updates for the instrument as trading interest and volume was apparently very low. This means that we need to be extra careful with the London index today because as soon as it opens it will try to assimilate yesterday's developments and news and it can be a little unpredictable during its first hours of trading. The outlook remains bullish but the momentum seems to have been exhausted at this point hence a reversal could be expected.

Economic Calendar -Forex Trading Newsletter

Time Currency Event Importance Forecast Previous

7.55 EUR German PMI Services Medium 55 55

8.00 EUR Euro-zone PMI Services Medium 53.1 53.1

8.30 GBP British PMI Services Medium 57.8 57.6

9.00 EUR Euro-zone Retail Sales Medium -0.2% 0.4%

12.30 USD US Trade Balance Medium $-40.3bn $-42.3bn

Times are in GMT

 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS & LEVELS

EUR/USD

The Euro was rather quiet yesterday spending the whole day in a narrow trading range. Today we expect volatility to increase due to the important Services report scheduled for release this morning.

The reports are expected to print in a steady fashion and that could allow the Euro to break above its recent highs. As such we'd like to enter long at 1.3895 if the Euro prints a new high and target the 1.3935 and 1.4010 marks with a stop at the 1.3845 area.


GBP/USD

The Pound was rather smooth in its trading like the Euro yesterday but today's Services' report should offer traders more information to act upon hence we believe volatility will increase.

We see an opportunity to go long on the Euro and actually we might already be a little late. We'd like to enter long at the 1.6885 level, target the 1.6905 and 1.6935 marks with a stop at the 1.6845 area in order to capitalize on any potential gains for the Pound due to a strong Services' report.

FTSE 100

The FTSE 100 was closed yesterday for May Day and due to the low trading volume most brokers didn't offer price updates for the UK index even though this is technically possible.

Nevertheless, our analysis remains pretty much the same, the uptrend remains still in effect but we see momentum to have faded so we are more inclined towards a reversal but we can't be sure when this will commence.

However, we'd like to be prepared for such a development so we'd like to offer a short scenario in case the FTSE reverses lower today: we'd like to enter short at the 6,785 points, target the 6,760 and 6,710 price tags and place a stop at the 6,840 points area. Please be careful with FTSE's opening today as it has been closed for 3 days now and it takes a bit for the index to normalize its trading.


Gold


Gold remains on a bullish outlook and it seems that Dollar's inability to capitalize on recent developments is allowing Gold to rebound higher after the steep losses that led it down to $1,273. We see an opportunity to go long on Gold today and we'd like to enter long at the $1,316 level, target the $1,320 and $1,327 price tags and place our stop at the $1,306 area.

The above charts in this forex trading newsletter have been created using FXCM's Trading Station platform.  Indicators' settings: EMA 55 (red line), EMA 200 (green line), MACD (12,26,9)

Tactics overview in this forex trading newsletter

Upon suggesting an entry, two levels are set as targets and a single stop is issued. Upon reaching target #1 we suggest that you liquidate 50% of your entered trade size and move your stops from the initially issued level at the breakeven level.

The breakeven level mentioned in this forex trading newsletter is the trade's opening price level where no losses can occur. After this step the trade is left to hit either the stop placed at the breakeven price or target #2 for the remaining 50% trade size. Any modifications needed to these tactics are specifically mentioned in the analysis accompanying each instrument in this forex trading newsletter.


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